Dell Essay

4. Is Dell’s strategy working? What is your assessment of the financial performance that Dell’s strategy has delivered during fiscal years 2000-2008? Use the financial ratios presented in the Appendix of the text (pages 240-241) as a basis for doing your calculations and drawing conclusions about Dell’s performance. Selected Financial Statement Data for Dell Inc., Fiscal Years 2000 – 2008 (in million, except per share data) | February 1, 2008| February 2, 2007| February 3, 2006| January 28, 2005| January 30, 2004| February 1, 2002| January 28, 2000| Results of Operations| | | | | | | | Net Revenue| 61,133| 57,420| 55,788| 49,121| 41,327| 31,168| 25,265| Cost of Revenue| 49,462| 47,904| 45,897| 40,103| 33,764| 25,661| 20,047| Gross Margin| 11,671| 9,516| 9,891| 9,018| 7,563| 5,507| 5,218| Gross Profit Margin| 19.1%| 16.6%| 17.7%| 18.4%| 18.3%| 17.7%| 20.7%| Operating Expenses| | | | | | | | + Selling, general and administrative| 7,538| 5,948| 5,051| 4,352| 3,604| 2,784| 2,387| + Research, development and engineering| 693| 498| 458| 460| 434| 452| 374| + Special charges| -| -| -| -| -| 482| 194| Total operating expenses| 8,231| 6,446| 5,509| 4,812| 4,038| 3,718| 2,955| Total operating expenses as a % of net revenues| 13.5%| 11.2%| 9.9%| 9.8%| 9.8%| 10.4%| 10.9%| Operating Income| 3,440| 3,070| 4,382| 4,206| 3,525| 1,789| 2,263| Operating profit margin| 5.6%| 5.3%| 7.9%| 8.6%| 8.5%| 5.7%| 9.0%| Investment and other income (loss), net| 387| 275| 226| 197| 186| (58)| 188| Income before income taxes extraordinary loss, and cumulative effect of change in accounting principle| 3,827| 3,345| 4,608| 4,403| 3,711| 1,731| 2,451| Provision for income taxes| 880| 762| 1,006| 1,385| 1,086| 485| 785| Net Income| 2,947| 2,583| 3,602| 3,018| 2,625| 1,246| 1,666| Net profit margin| 4.8%| 4.5%| 6.5%| 6.1%| 6.4%| 4.0%| 6.6%| Earnings per common share: Basic| 1.33| 1.15| 1.50| 1.20|  1.02| 0.48| 0.66| Diluted| 1.31| 1.14| 1.47| 1.18| 1.01| 0.46| 0.61| Weighted average shares outstanding: Basic| 2,223| 2,255| 2,403| 2,509| 2,565| 2,602| 2,536| Diluted| 2,247| 2,271| 2,449| 2,568| 2,619| 2,726| 2,728| | | | | | | | | Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Data| | | | | | | | Net cash provided by operating activities| 3,949| 3,969| 4,751| 5,821| 3,670| 3,797| 3,926| Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments| 7,972| 10,298| 9,070| 9,807| 11,922| 8,287| 6,853| Total assets| 27,561| 25,635| 23,252| 23,215| 19,311| 13,535| 11,560| Long-term debt| 362| 569| 625| 505| 505| 520| 508| Total stockholders’ equity| 3,735| 4,328| 4,047| 6,485| 6,280| 4,694| 5,308| Profitability Ratios | January 28, 2000| February 1, 2002| January 30, 2004| January 28, 2005| February 3, 2006| February 2, 2007| February 1, 2008| Gross Profit Margin| 20.7%| 17.7%| 18.3%| 18.4%| 17.7%| 16.6%| 19.1%| Operating Profit Margin| 9.0%| 5.7%| 8.5%| 8.6%| 7.9%| 5.3%| 5.6%| Net Profit Margin| 6.6%| 4.0%| 6.4%| 6.1%| 6.5%| 4.5%| 4.8%| The chart shows the Profitability Ratios of Dell from 2000 to 2008. In general, from 2000 to 2008, the profit of Dell was quite stable. As we can see, Dell’s strategy is still working and makes a lot of money for Dell every year. However, there was no remarkable increase. The net profit margin has been about 5% during Fiscal Years 2000 – 2008. | January 28, 2000| February 1, 2002| January 30, 2004| January 28, 2005| February 3, 2006| February 2, 2007| February 1, 2008| Return on total assets (ROA)| 14.4%| 9.2%| 13.6%| 13.0%| 15.5%| 10.1%| 10.7%| Return on Stockholder’s Equity (ROE)| 31.4%| 26.5%| 41.8%| 46.5%|  89.0%| 59.7%| 78.9%| Return on invested capital (ROI)| 28.6%| 23.9%| 38.7%| 43.2%| 77.1%| 52.7%| 71.9%| The chart indicates ROA, ROE and ROI of Dell from 2000 to 2008. From 2000 to 2008, ROA has been stable because Dell built a lot of manufactory. However, ROE and ROI had very impressive increase since 2000. In 2006, ROE reached the peak 89% and ROI reached the peak 77.1%. It proved that Dell has used the monetary capital invested in its operations and the returns to those investments very effectively. | January 28, 2000| February 1, 2002| January 30, 2004| January 28, 2005| February 3, 2006| February 2, 2007| February 1, 2008| Long term debt to capital ratio| 0.09| 0.10| 0.07| 0.07| 0.13| 0.12| 0.09| Long term debt to equity ratio| 0.10| 0.11| 0.08| 0.08| 0.15| 0.13| 0.10| The chart shows 2 leverage ratios of Dell: Long-term debt to capital ratio and long term debt to equity ratio. These ratios are quite important because they measure creditworthiness and balance sheet strength. As we can see, all the ratios were very low, under 0.2 which had very good effect to the creditworthiness and balance sheet strength. Besides that, they could also help Dell to borrow additional funds if needed. In conclusion: Through the analysis, we can say that Dell’s strategy is still effective. It helps Dell to earn a lot of money every year. However, although Dell has gained profit during Fiscal Years 2000 – 2008, there was no remarkable increase in profit and it seemed to be stable. Dell’s strategy has been very successful when it helped the company to control the cost very well and run the company very smoothly. 5. What does a SWOT analysis reveal about the attractiveness of Dell’s situation in 2008? Dell SWOT analysis Strengths: * World’s largest PC maker. * One of the best known brands in the world. * First PC maker to offer next-day, on-site product service. * Direct to customer business model. Uses latest technology. * Dell has remarkably low operating cost relative to revenue because it cuts out the retailer and supplies directly to the customers. * Dell’s Direct Model approach enables the company to offer direct relationships with customers such as corporate and institutional customers. * Dell’s direct customer allows it to provide top-notch customer service before and after the sale. * Each Dell system is built to order to meet each customer’s specifications. Reliability, Service and Support. * Dell boasts a very efficient procurement, manufacturing and distribution process allowing it to offer customers powerful systems at competitive prices. * Dell is able to introduce the latest relevant technology compared to companies using the indirect distribution channels. * Dell is not a manufacturer; Components are made by the suppliers and Dell assembles the computers using relatively cheap labor. The finished goods are then dropped off with the customer by courier. Dell has total command of the supply chain. * Dell turns over inventory for an average of every six days, keeping inventory costs low. * Dell is enhancing and broadening the fundamental competitive advantages of the direct model by increasingly applying the efficiencies of the Internet to its entire business. Weakness: * A huge range of products and components from many suppliers from various countries. * Computer maker and not the computer manufacturer, making DELL unable to switch supply. * Dell lacked solid dealer / retailer relationships. * No propriety technology * Not attracting the college student segment of the market. Dell’s sales revenue from educational institutions such as colleges only accounts for a merely 5% of the total. * Dell’s focus on the corporate and government institutional customers somehow affected its ability to form relationships  with educational institutions. * For home users, Dell’s direct method and customization approach posed problems. For one, customers cannot go to retailers because Dell does not use distribution channels. * Customers just can’t buy Dell as simply as other brands because each product is custom-built according to their specifications and this might take days to finish. Opportunities: * Diversification strategy by introducing many new products to its range. * Personal computers are becoming a necessity now more than ever. Customers are getting more and more educated about computers. Second-time buyers would most likely avail of Dell’s custom-built computers because as their knowledge grows, so do their need to experiment or use some additional computer features. * The internet also provides Dell with greater opportunities since all they have to do now is to visit Dell’s website to place their order or to get information. * Since Dell does not have retail stores, the online stores would surely make up for its absence. It is also more convenient for customers to shop online than to actually drive and do purchase at a physical store. Threats: * Competitive rivalry that exists in the PC market globally. * New entrants to the market pose potential threats. * The threat to become outmoded is a pulsating reality in a computer business. * Price difference among brands is getting smaller. * Dell’s Direct Model attracts customers because it saves cost. Since other companies are able to offer computers at low costs, this could threaten Dell’s price-conscious growing customer base. * With almost identical prices, price difference is no longer an issue for a customer. They might choose other brands instead of waiting for Dell’s customized computers. * The growth rate of the computer industry is also slowing down. Today, Dell has the biggest share of the market. If the demand slows down, the competition will become stiffer in the process. Dell has to work doubly hard to differentiate itself from its substitutes to be able to continue holding a significant market share. => Technological advancement is a double-edge sword. It is an opportunity but at the same time a threat. Low-cost leadership strategy is no longer an issue to computer companies therefore it is important for Dell to stand out from the rest. 6. Which company is competitively stronger—Dell or Hewlett-Packard? Use the weighted competitive strength assessment methodology shown in Table 4.2 of Chapter 4 to support your answer.

The eNotes Blog 9 Dark Reads for Every Type ofBooklover

9 Dark Reads for Every Type ofBooklover Whether it’s morbid humor or downright macabre, everyone needs a spooky-themed read now and then- and that doesn’t just mean thrillers. Whether you want a modern or a classic, non-fiction or a novel, an epic poem or a play, we have nine sinister stories for you. 1. For the Brooding Romantic: Jane Eyre  by Charlotte Brontà « Jane Eyre has an undoubtedly tragic beginning, complete with a ghostly visitation and a deadly epidemic. Jane is an orphan surrounded by deaths- those of her parents, uncle, and best friend- and long abused by her aunt and the superiors at her boarding school. After boarding school, Jane goes to Thornfield estate to work as a governess, where she is tormented by deranged laughter coming from the attic in the night. Whats more, the strange demeanor of her boss, Mr. Rochester, along with their ensuing love affair, build the story into a thrilling romance-turned-horror. 2. For the Historical Fiction Aficionado: The Devil in the White City by Erik Larson Erik Larson’s widely acclaimed historical novel The Devil in the White City follows two men: Henry (H.H.) Holmes, the devil, and Daniel Burnham, the architect of the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair. Burnham is turning Chicago around from a city that was practically a wasteland to â€Å"the White City.† However, Chicago’s most notorious killer, H.H. Holmes, is lying in wait. After Holmes attends the hugely successful fair with his new bride and her sister, he takes them back to his infamous â€Å"castle,† a labyrinth built to accommodate his murderous habits. This fictionalization of a true-crime tale adds suspense and theatrics to one of the most infamous murder cases of American history. 3. For the Ghostly Thespian: Hamlet  by William Shakespeare Hamlet, Prince of Denmark, is one of Shakespeare’s most tortured and complex protagonists. Visited by the ghost of his recently-deceased father, Hamlet discovers that the king was, in fact, murdered by his own brother, Hamlet’s uncle Claudius, in order to usurp the throne. Claudius amplifies this blow to the late king’s memory by marrying his wife and Prince Hamlet’s mother, Gertrude, shortly after the king’s death. Hamlet’s ensuing torment over whether or not to kill Claudius in revenge for his father’s death- punctuated by murders, madness, and suicide- seal his fate as a classic tragic hero. 4. For the True-Crime Junkie: Ill Be Gone in the Dark by Michelle McNamara Michelle McNamaras true-crime story paints a grisly portrait of the then-unidentified Golden State Killer, who ran rampant throughout California from 1974 until 1986. McNamara not only coined his now infamous moniker, but she is also widely credited with drawing the attention to this four-decades-long unsolved mystery that led to his capture. Ill Be Gone in the Dark just might be the greatest true-crime novel of the decade, and any murderino or Dateline-watcher will be absorbed by this book from the first page. 5. For the Fan of the Supernatural: Frankenstein by Mary Shelley As for paranormal tales, Mary Shelley’s classic exploration into the question of what makes us human remains unsurpassed. Dr. Frankenstein achieves his obsessive goal of reanimation and unleashes his creation upon the world. As the monster discovers his lonely fate, he seeks revenge on his creator. This classic horror laid the foundation for many of its successors, and its questions about the humanity of scientific creations have only become more relevant in todays world. 6. For the Creepy Classics Lover: Inferno by Dante Alighieri The oldest text on our list, Inferno paints a grisly landscape of hell- in all its regions, creations, and horrors- informed by Dante’s medieval context. This epic poem describes in graphic detail the torment of sinners in the afterlife, giving readers a disturbing perspective of medieval theology. While Dante’s melodrama adds subtle humor for todays readers- for example, his fantasies of meeting his hero, the ancient Roman poet Virgil, and of his enemies being tortured for their sins- his scenes of human suffering paint a bleak picture of life after death. 7. For the Grim Poet: â€Å"The Raven,† â€Å"The Cask of Amontillado,† and â€Å"The Tell-Tale Heart† by Edgar Allan Poe Though these are a series of distinct poems and short stories, Poe’s defining and ominous style cemented his canon in the history of poetry are best represented in these three works. Death of a one true love, murder, and foreboding omens tie these tales to one another, giving readers a feel for Poe’s gothic style of poetry. Plus, they are great starting points from which to enter Poe’s extensive collection of other grim works. 8. For the Macabre Humorist: Smoke Gets in Your Eyes: And Other Lessons from the Crematory by Caitlin Doughty Caitlin Doughty’s first publication, Smoke Gets in Your Eyes, is the memoir of Doughty, a twenty-three-year-old novice mortician. It follows her from her first job as a crematory operator, filled with morbid misadventures, to her time in mortuary school, where she develops a passion for changing the way people view death and dying. Doughty’s sharp humor and unusual enthusiasm for undertaking make this book a distinctive combination of creepy and clever. 9. For the Dystopian Devotee: 1984  by George Orwell A picture of a dystopian future, Orwell’s classic novel is gaining relevance as it is referenced more in the media today more than ever before. In Oceania, the homeland of 1984’s protagonist, Winston Smith, most everyone is constantly surveilled by the government, or â€Å"Big Brother.† This totalitarian regime goes to great lengths to maintain power- burning â€Å"dangerous† books, altering history, forcing citizens to participate in allegiance rituals, and eradicating love and intimacy; that is, until Winston and his lover, Julia, defy Big Brother’s rules in pursuit of knowledge and freedom.

How to bridge language barriers - Emphasis

How to bridge language barriers How to bridge language barriers A new dictionary is set to make sense of that most inscrutable of languages: teen speak. This comprehensive reference book, called Pimp Your Vocab, aims to allow bemused parents and teachers to comprehend such teenglish terms as owned (meaning embarrassed), smacked it (to have done well), and teek (adjective for very old; from antique). Understanding your child or pupil may help you to save face (though its probably best not to adopt these words yourself); but being completely clear in business communications can be the difference between winning and losing a client. Thinking globally In the modern world of global commerce, chances are at some point youll have to correspond with someone in another part of the world. We know technology can instantly transport information to just about anywhere on the planet, but are you sure your message will be completely understood once its there? If you are writing any work document (including any letters and emails) for someone whose first language isnt English, there are some rules that you must follow if you want to be understood. 1. Think of the reader and keep it simple This advice really applies to all business writing, but it is particularly important across language barriers. Use the most straightforward words and sentences you can. So, instead of saying, we have been thinking of implementing some alterations, please see them outlined in the attached document, try descriptions of the changes we want to make are in the attached document. Usually you should try to avoid tions (like description, recommendation etc.), as they tend to make sentences heavy with extra words. However, in this case its good to use them, since other languages often have recognisable equivalents. 2. Structure thoughtfully You want to make the readers journey through your document as smooth and easy as possible. Plan thoroughly first to make sure you structure it in the most logical way and use clear subheadings to guide them. If they have to work even harder by following a haphazard stream-of-consciousness, you risk irritating them and losing their interest entirely. 3. Be literal and explain yourself Be very aware of the language you choose. English is bursting with idioms (expressions that dont make sense from literal translations), like put the project to bed, cut the mustard and clear as mud. Avoid these entirely. What is an everyday term to us could well be utterly bewildering to your reader just imagine them looking up each individual word to understand the sentiment behind think outside the box or a different kettle of fish. Even such simple phrasal verbs as turned up and stand for dont make literal sense. Use came and represent or mean instead. Abbreviations and acronyms should also be used with care, or left out if possible. If you really cant avoid including them, make sure you explain them at your first use, or add a glossary. If you stick to these principles in your global dealings, you will reap the rewards. But when you do, just try to resist telling your colleagues that you totally smacked it.

Network security Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Network security - Essay Example There is a requirement of a powerful vulnerability assessment and management tool that will facilitate the network security team in crises situations. Moreover, there is one more challenge for the network administrators i.e. they are not able to find traces for the threat that has already penetrated into a distributed network environment. Likewise, distributed network is a merger of two or more networks and may be operational on a broad spectrum. Moreover, the existing network security controls are not capable to detect the worm, as the distributed network is connected to one or more networks; it is difficult to analyze specific anomalies and patterns of unknown activity on the distributed network. Furthermore, the combination of infinite data packets can construct a major impact on the network because they all have the same frequency and are associated with the same domain that is similar to the current scenario. For addressing this issue, powerful vulnerability detection and assess ment tools are required for detecting threats on a distributed network. ... Moreover, these tools will also facilitate to categorize data packets in to time and frequency domains distinctly. Furthermore, network administrators can also implement a methodology, subset of the current methodology, which is called as anomalous space extraction based on predictions of network traffic or transmission of data packets. Successful information security management involves an amalgamation of prevention, detection and response in order to deploy a strong security defense. Security has become an encircling issue for designers and developers of the digital world. A system should also be able to counter incidents and raise proper procedures in case an information security incident occurs. Information security incident handling takes a stride forward in the information security management procedure. The aim is to provide a reference for the management, administration and other technical operational staff. If considering the enterprise government, focus on executing manageme nt actions is required to support the strategic goals of the organization. It has been calculated approximately half of the breaches to the security of the information systems are made by the internal staff or employee of the organization. Security incident management facilitates the development of security incident handling and planning including preparation for detection and reply to information security issues. The standard of the incident management primarily relates to ensure the existence of processes rather than the contents of these procedures. The security incident of different computing systems will have dissimilar effects and escort to different consequences, bureau, departments the organization need to tailor the security

Reading Journal Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Reading Journal - Coursework Example the chapters (Chapter 13) in the book it has been told that the early 17th and mid 20th centuries have been very favorable for Europe as it has dominated majority of the world (Kagan, Ozment and Turner 322). The entire European rule has been discussed in a detailed and effective manner through which I have been able to learn a lot about what exactly happened during these centuries and how United Kingdom, France, Austria, United Provinces of Netherlands etc. used to rule other parts of Europe. It has been possible through the readings that I learnt about the condition of France after Louis XIV (Kagan, Ozment and Turner 334). Previously, I was not very well aware of the Ptolemaic System and the Cultures during the 16th and 17th Century, however, after reading chapter 14 I was quite informed about the system, norms and cultures (Kagan, Ozment and Turner 349). Although I do not know anything about the system and the culture as I have not lived in it but it was due to the excess of information and the detailed sub-parts that I am able to understand scientific societies and how their systems actually worked (Kagan, Ozment and Turner 355). Economy is also an important aspect of any society or country. Since, Europe has a dominating role during the 18th century therefore its economy must have been strong and stable. From the Varieties of Aristocratic Privileges to French Nobility and Family structures and Family economy, all have been discussed in this chapter and has helped me in improving my knowledge regarding the subject (Kagan, Ozment and Turner 373). Similarly, the second chapter â€Å"‘I am the State’: The Development of Absolutism in England and France† has equally helped me expanding my knowledge regarding the development of Absolutism in the two countries (Rogers 25). Furthermore, subjects like Scientific Revolution have never been of such interest. This is due to the fact that author has successfully elaborated each and every detail in the book along

Success of Russian Multinational Corporations Essay

Success of Russian Multinational Corporations - Essay Example The organisation of the Soviet Union explains why the Russian MNCs adopted the export strategy before the establishment of subsidiaries. The other reason for Russian MNCs choice of internalisation strategy was seeking markets for their products and a gaining a good understanding of the market before committing more resources in the form of purchase of subsidiaries. Russian MNCs had to have a feel of the market in terms of profitability and market conditions through export of products, the success in these goals allowed for further investment in terms of purchase of assets and set up of subsidiaries. The need to reveal shareholder structure and ensure transparency in operations affected the ability of Russian MNCs to set up new subsidiaries early in the internalisation strategy owing to the effects of â€Å"cowboy capitalism† (Filippov, 7). However, a better understanding of the market after exports and success in the market allowed the MNCs to purchase subsidiaries. The other reason for the choice of the above-mentioned internalisation strategy was the need to exploit efficiency through seeking channels for economies of scale in production. Producing locally for a large market and supplying through exports was the initial manner in which the Russian MNCs achieved this goal. Understanding the global market and gaining access to resources in the host countries allowing for cheaper production resulted in the acquisition of assets and the subsequent set up of subsidiaries in these markets.

Analysis of Indias Potential in the New World Order

Analysis of Indias Potential in the New World Order INTRODUCTION Background Dramatic changes at the global level have initiated a process of reorientation of the power distribution and emergence of new powers in international politics. The changes initiated with the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR ), the unification of Europe in pursuit of an identity of its own ,a sharp decline of communism has set in a process of transition in world affairs, the sudden and consistent rise of asian countries mainly China, India ASEAN Bloc, emergence of resurgent Russia and establishment of new economic power blocs like the G20, BRIC RIC. The emergence of USA as the sole super power and its global war on terror have changed the security scenario for all and sundry. The existing obscurity has given rise to new opportunities, new speculations and new considerations regarding power distribution. A gradual shift from a geo-political world order to a geo-economical world order has come to stay. There is no doubt that any future order would have th e considerations such as comprehensive national power to incl Economy and the power it wields albeit indirectly, at the centre of any international power game. Global shifts happen rarely and are even less often peaceful. The transfer of power from west to east will dramatically change the context of dealing with international challenges. In the early 20th century the imperial order and the aspiring states of Germany and Japan failed to adjust to each other. That led to wars which devastated the better part of the world. The coming shift in power will have a greater impact globally and will require assimilation of diverse political and cultural systems. Todays rising powers seek redress of past grievances, are proudly nationalistic and want to claim their rightful place in the comity of nations. Asian rise in economic terms will translate into greater political and military power, thus increasing the potential damage from conflicts. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has noted that- In the next two decades China and India will undergo industrialisation four times the size of the United States and at five times the speedFor the first t ime in many centuries, power is moving East. Blair added that In this new world, we must clear a path to partnership, not stand off against each other competing for power. The worldcannot afford a return to the 20th century struggles for hegemony.[1] India being a part of this evolutionary and revolutionary strategic economic process needs to apprise herself of these changes and redefine: if required, her goals and objectives to emerge as a reckonable force from the present mesh of contradictions and complexities. The term reckonable force can be redefined as a regional power when one views Indias prospects vis-Ã  -vis her size, geo-strategic location, abundant natural resources, size of economy and military capability. The Indian nation is not just a nation, but a subcontinent. Being a subcontinent not only in size, but by its population which is in excess of One Billion, sets it apart in a World with a total population of a little above Five Billion means that in every Five Human being on Earth one is an Indian. It is on record that the Indian Armed Forces is the Fourth Largest in the World. India has since the past Twenty Eight years been exerting her influence in the South Asian sub-region. Thus India has functioned for over half her period of independence as a regional power in the literal sense. It is instructive that given the New World Order in which the US is about the only Super power, it is pertinent that in order to maintain the Balance of Power, that Nations like Brazil and India with a long period of History devoid of expansionist propensity, should emerge as a Super power to enhance the balance of power in the South Asian sub-region, and the World in general. The Indo-Pak conflict of 1971 leading to the emergence of Bangladesh, peace keeping operations in Sri Lanka, quick repression of an attempted coup in Maldives, deployment of Indian navy in Gulf of Aden and the enhanced engaegemnt and involvement of India in various international forums both on strategic geopolitical stage provide ample evidence that India possesses many of the attributes of a regional power. The emergence as a knowledge based economy and as a Human resource powerhouse, make India a force to reckon with today and strong vibrant economy in future. In the recent past, India enhanced role in plethora of world fora and the Indo-US Nuclear deal and subsequent ratification by Nuclear Suppliers Group IAEA. However, in some areas like all round economic development, poverty, population explosion, literacy rates and foreign policy to some extent, India is lacking at the moment. For India to emerge as a regional power, these unfavourable areas need critical attention and rea ppraisal. The Indian economy is growing at an average rate of 8 per cent a year. Most Indian and foreign observers are confident that India will sustain this tempo of growth in the near future, and will go on to become one of the worlds leading economies and a global political power in 2020. A few voices draw attention to the tremendous economic, political and social challenges facing India that the country must overcome before it can lay claim to being a world power [2]. Indians have always known that their nation has the potential to be significant power in a way in which citizens of nations with smaller populations do not. Nehru himself , for all that he emphasized the benign nature of Indian power, was clear in his mind that India, with its vast population, will always make a difference in the world Fate , he said, has marked for us big things.[3] Thus we need always be mindful of the developments that are occurring behind the veil of regional instability that is drawn across Indias rise to power. If that veil were ever to be drawn back, the world might witness the quite sudden advent of India onto the wider Indian Ocean stage as a significant pan regional player. That is not to say that India will quickly overcome the organizational and internal political difficulties alluded to above ; it is to make the point, rather, that as far as Indias Indian Ocean region is concerned, its power potential is very high when viewed in comparative terms. In this sense, it would be quite wrong to set India against the powers of the northern Pacific and to judge its power potential according to those standards.[4] Statement of the Argument A countrys role in the international system is not a random occurrence or a result of an accident; but is basically a function of its power position in the international hierarchy. To have a Subject Role in international politics is to be a part of the power structure and the inner circle that makes vital decisions about the fate and destiny of the international system and the nations within it. The Object Role nations are at the receiving end of the decisions made by the subject role nations. A third in-between category is that of an independent centre of power. These nations do not have the leverage to influence the course of the international system as a whole, but do possess enough capability to have, within a given configuration of power, a considerable degree of autonomy and the capability to resist the application of unwelcome and forced decisions. While subject nations have global influence, independent centres of power are often dominant or pre-eminent in a certain region. T hey may, therefore may also be referred to as Regional Powers . Typically a subject nation resists the emergence of a regional power; for to accommodate others to a similar role is to diminish ones own power. The tendency is to extend ones own power and exercise domination over others so as to reduce the emerging regional powers to the status of a mere object nation.[5] India gained pre-eminence in South Asia in the aftermath of the Indo-Pak war of 1971 but more recently with the steady economic growth, growing international stature and active interaction and involvement in various world forums have made it an independent power centre (regional power) in South Asia. With the recent changes in the world politics and diffusion of power, countries with regional prominence have come to possess a great capacity for asserting themselves. In this context, India has the capability and the potential to be elevated to the status of a regional power. An analysis of various factors in the light of international power structure would facilitate the prognosis of the status India is likely to achieve by 2020 AD i.e. Regional Power. Aim To assess Indias potential in the new world order so as to forecast the prospects of India emerging as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 AD. Justification for the Study Ever since gaining independence in 1947, India has moved slowly but steadily towards its role as a regional power. Historically, India has been the seat of famous ancient civilisations. It invokes memories of past greatness, though episodic; and of epochs of creativity, not only in Philosophy and Literature but also in Science and Mathematics. The fact that the last several centuries saw India under alien rule only makes aspirations in the restoration of greatness all the more deeply felt'[6]. Today, with the rapid economic growth and military stature, Indias influence in South Asia in particular and the world in general, is beginning to emerge and being felt by all and sundry A study of various factors that would aid Indias emergence, as well as various impediments that retard this process merit analysis. India is a fast steadily developing country and today stands among the top few industrial nations in the world and has a rapidly growing industrial service sector. Although pover ty, illiteracy and health deficiencies are some of the vexing problems, yet only few nations have larger pools of trained professionals, scientific, technological and executive talents than that in India. India, as a nation is about over half a century old not considering her ancient and erstwhile status as one of the oldest civilisations. In this period of her independence, she has exhibited character and pedigree. She was instrumental to the creation of the Non Aligned Movement in the cold war era immediately after independence and show her aspiration of emerging as an independent power centre in world polity. She has on the issue of Nuclear Non proliferation taken a consistent stance even though this posture has met with the ire of the developed world has not deterred her. This attitude was demonstrated by her refusal to sign the CTBT and also the NPT. It is on record that it took her more than a quarter of a century to carry out a follow up nuclear test. This could be placed at the doorstep of the fact that her good neighbours China and Pakistan have continued to arm themselves with these offensive weapons. India in her nuclear policy states that she would abide with the principle s of no-first strike, nuclear deterrence as the cornerstone of that policy. And to continue to advocate for a ban on nuclear weapons like the type achieved on Chemical and Biological warfare weapons and the ban on use of land mines. These stated positions have recently been understood and appreciated by the entire world polity and the Indo-US Nuclear deal and its subsequent ratification at Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) International Atomic Energy Asssociation (IAEA) have largely vindicated Indian stance on these issues. The engagement and involvement of India in G8, BRIC, RIC, ASEAN, IBSA in the geopolitical arena. The positions on WTO Climate change are also a case in point for growing stature of India on world stage. The Information Technology (IT) propels the world of technology in the present scenario. In this field, India has demonstrated outstanding abilities and progressed leaps and bounds in various facets, be it hardware or technology or software development. In the Silicon Valley of American, it is reported that 60,000 Indians operating there could collectively boast of assets worth more five hundred billion dollars. This is no mean achievement and the corresponding effect on India is the collateral development of the Asian Silicon Valley in Bangalore, Karnataka. In the field of IT, the Indian nation has arrived on the regional and the world stage. For this simple reason, her Engineers, Scientists, Doctors and Technologists are being sought across the globe. This is not to talk of the influence of Indian business houses and management gurus, in the entire world more so in the developing world, where they command an imposing stature in the fields of Textile technology and Pharmaceuticals. Indias stature as an IT Knowledge base powerhouse is a major factor in its rise at the world stage. India is a single democratic political entity, though slightly marred by mass/ public development issues and religious regional strifes varying from state to state. In view of the existing fluidity in the Asian region following the global paradigm, shift in the power distribution and the present status of India, an attempt to foresee Indias evolution as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 would be relevant. Scope The scope of this paper would be limited to analysing various factors governing the emergence of India as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 AD. Indias performance as an independent state would be given a brief overview along with her present status in the region. Preview To analyse the future, it is essential to critically evaluate Indias power potential as well as the impediments en-route. India has inherited a volatile, ethnic, religious and social mix that generates strong cross-currents of tension between the states of the region and added to this are the domestic under-currents of religious fundamentalism, communal tensions, demand for autonomous/ independent states and inherent problems of a multi-lingual and multi-racial society. Indias quest for the regional power status in this turbulent environment is underwritten by an increasingly open and vibrant economy and a Military Industrial complex that stretches deep into the bureaucratic structure of the nation. However, Indias attention has been primarily focused more on the problems associated with nation building and its immediate neighbourhood and, than on the Indian Ocean region, let alone the world. It is ironic that while on one hand, it is the problems of the neighbourhood that have largely driven Indias military build up, on the other hand it is these very problems that continue to limit its strategic reach. It is this combination of a drive for a great power status and intensifying regional and national problems that pose a number of questions about Indias future. This paper endeavours to understand and answer some of these questions. Source of the Data The source of the data are the various books in the college library, various magazines and articles written by various people from time to time. Internet was extensively used for collection of data, various study reports and articles. Bibliography is attached at Appx A. BRIEF HISTORY AND PRESENT STATUS The colonial powers that ruled India for centuries apparently visualised her potential and attempted to undermine it through a process of gradual disintegration. Formation of Pakistan is one vivid example of such designs. After independence, the citizens of India have displayed remarkable resilience to destructive forces. Despite impediments like poverty, corruption, ailing bureaucracy and population explosion, India has made significant progress in various fields to incl Education, Manufacturing, Knowledge based industry, IT, Space Technology, Pharmaceutical Industry. Today, India ranks among fastest growing economies of the world and IT Knowledge based industry powerhouse. In the past sixty years after independence, India has acquired great maturity and realism in the management of its strategic environment albeit with considerable pain and sacrifice. Indias posture has been based on a realistic assessment of its capabilities. It projects a defensive, progress oriented stance rather than an expansionist or a hegemonistic stance. India has continued to follow and propagate the ideology of non-alignment and is now on the threshold of coming out of its shell to play an important role at the world stage as a Global player if not as atleast as a major regional player. The case in point of the growing stature and understanding of the Indian nation has been- The nuclear agreement, which followed three weeks later, calling for the separation of Indias nuclear facilities into civilian and military, and bringing Indias civilian facilities under international safeguards in exchange for nuclear energy cooperation, demonstrated the growing strategic convergence bet ween the US India. Domestic political considerations have come in the way of the Indian government operationalising the nuclear deal. That notwithstanding, the deal was widely welcomed in India because it opened the doors for India to participate in civilian nuclear commerce with members of the NSG while allowing it to retain its nuclear weapons programme despite being outside the NPT. [7] PRESENT STATUS Contemporarily, India enjoys a leading status in South Asia. Militarily, she has displayed her potential either in a direct conflict, coercion or allaying any belligerence by its potential adversaries. Birth of Bangladesh, intervention in Sri Lanka Maldives, Indian Naval involvement in Gulf of Aden are a few indicators that India has acquired a great measure of the regional hegemony. Power status takes into account an ideological or political role and above all the economic health of a nation. Regional hegemony or dominance implies the existence of local military pre-ponderance and the availability of non-military instruments of pressure, including economic coercion. Studies of strategic power in the world politics commonly assign to India the status of a middle power of some regional significance, but little more'[8]. A nation state such as India, by virtue of its size, resources and geographical location, finds herself a power in regional terms whether or not it seeks the label and despite the fact that all its capabilities for regional dominance are not yet fully exploited. Indias current pre-eminence over its neighbours, however, is so substantial that its position has been recognised by the entire world, and implicitly so by all South Asian states as well.'[9] Recent years have witnessed a steady growth in Indias power, based upon a strong economic performance. According to the World Bank, Indias per capita income is now higher than Chinas and some reports put its rate of economic growth above Chinas in real terms. This increase in the underlying growth of the economy is what has underwritten Indias substantial growth in conventional military power. By virtue of its military growth, India has acquired , by default, a Maximalist position that would enable it to have a strategic reach throughout the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, with the prospect of a declining role for the superpowers in the region, Indias growth in military capability is likely to leave it stronger in relative as well as absolute terms. The erstwhile Soviet Union is no longer a major factor in the Indian Ocean and the peace dividend in the world politics may eventually lead to a reduced presence on the part of the United States. [10] While Indias emerging role is well acknowledged in the world, there are clear limitations both upon the current extent of Indias power and upon the rate at which that power will accrue. With India, it has been very much the question of WATCH THIS SPACE .'[11] INDIAS POWER POTENTIAL Geo-Strategic Location. India shares its borders with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan. It has close proximity to Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Therefore, in South Asia, it has to directly interact with many neighbours. Strategically, India lies astride the Indian ocean, flanking the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca. It lies across the routes from West Asia to South-East and East Asia and dominates the world trade routes. Therefore, the dominating position of India and its island territories would enable it to control the sea lines of communication between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans and consequently the world trade. Natural Resources. India has abundant natural resources. Its soil varies greatly from region to region. It is alluvial in the northern plains, sandy in the western desert, black in the Deccan Plateau and coarse in the hilly terrain. Each type is suitable for a particular group of crops. There are areas where trees grow on their own. They form the source of timber, pulp, resin, lac, gum and cane. Indias hydro-electric and coal reserves are massive. Oil exploration is limited but off shore potentials suggest a great amount of self reliance. Indias Thorium reserves are large. Its known reserves of Iron ore, which represent 10% of the worlds total and those of a wide range of other minerals suggest that India has the potential for a relatively independent economy.'[12] Human Resources. Human resources are of paramount importance in any economy. A human being comes not only with a mouth and a belly for consumption, but also with two hands to work. The adverse effects of unchecked population growth cannot be ignored; however, given the right direction and awakening, the population can be utilised constructively. A large young population helps to boost demand by providing an extensive and growing market for industrial products. It can lower wages, increase profits and output, encourage industrial development and open employment avenues. This is borne out by the fact that numerous MNCs are investing huge sums of money to tap the cheap Indian labour and the immense ready market. Economic Base. Till recently, multiple restrictions on private business co-operation and the goal of achieving economic self reliance had shackled the Indian economy by hindering unprejudiced co-operation from industrial nations. With the adoption of a liberalised economic policy, an extensive economic relation is now growing. The new economic policy lays greater emphasis on private enterprise and intensified competition for dynamic industrial progress and mordenisation. Prospects for a substantial upswing of economic growth seem to be favourable now. India has huge reserves of important raw material and a large domestic market. It also has a large group of entrepenures and managers experienced in organising and managing industrial enterprises under difficult circumstances. Given the improved setting for entrepreneurial activities, the large number of scientists and engineers, some of them highly qualified professionals, trained overseas or with practical foreign experience, could be of immense benefit to the country[13]. The expectations of economic development are based on an economic policy that is yet in its infancy. For long term stability the creation of a congenial atmosphere for foreign investment is necessary. Our focus would have to shift from development of industrial sector to the improvement of institutional framework for long term development. Greater efforts to improve social security are needed to cushion the effects of intensified industrial competition and to open up new possibilities for the impoverished classes to take a share in the economic development. Science and Technology. India began to develop its capabilities in science and technology soon after independence. However, the overall programme while impressive compared to that of other poor countries is inadequate and poorly organised in relation to the countrys potential and requirements[14]. Of the total research and development in the country, only 25% is used to promote innovation in industry and agriculture, while the major chunk contributes to development in areas like atomic energy, space programme and defence equipment. The latest thrust to uplift the economy has renewed the vigour in the sphere of science and technology also. The private sector has shown great promise to measure upto the national requirements and a healthy competition with other nations can be seen specially in areas like computer software and electronics. Numerous institutions are doing some original and promising research in various fields. Political System Indias political system was initially dominated by the small urban elite comprising leaders of the nationalist movement and an elitist civil service. At the state level, elected representatives wielded impressive influence in directing benefits to their constituencies and acting as channels of complaint and pressure within the bureaucracy. The system moved rapidly to broaden its base of support by bringing the bulk of peasantry into the system and also by including small business and trading interests. The evolution of such a system from the authoritarian colonial rule was accompanied by tension and uneven progress. India had managed to operate a complex ; constitutional, federal, parliamentary and party dominated political system with remarkable effectiveness. Indias manifold diversity and communal problems often raise the spectre of disintegration; these are common to a nation state building process that the developed countries experienced a century ago. In the Indian democratic set-up, its people have displayed a great amount of maturity in preserving their rights. Any display of authoritarianism by a democratically elected government has met with stiff opposition. A vivid example is the imposition of emergency in 1975 by Mrs Gandhi and her subsequent electoral defeat in 1977. The emergency and the general elections of 1977 were a test of democracy, equivalent in significance to a social revolution[15]. A seemingly large section of illiterate electorate is well aware of its might and is critical of the people who represent them in higher offices. India has managed to solve or at least contain major disputes on language policy and regional autonomy. At the same time religious, caste based and even communist organisations have been brought in and operate in a largely peaceful democratic institution. Indias political leaders have shown a firm resolution in making of both foreign and defence policies. The military also operates under political direction. Inherent stability is provided to the system by the presence of well established institutions like judiciary, banking and stock exchange. Future political crisis no doubt loom large, but this can only be expected considering the countrys social and economic metamorphosis. The durability and resilience of the Indian democratic system indicates that not only would it continue in the coming years but would also gain more strength and experience. Military Capability. Since their debacle in the 1962 Sino- Indian conflict, the Indian Armed Forces have come a long way. Today India possesses adequate defence capability to look after her interests. India is able to produce diverse military items such as small arms, field and anti-aircraft recoilless guns, howitzers, support electronic items, anti-tank, anti-aircraft and naval missiles, armoured vehicles, supersonic aircraft, helicopters, anti-submarine frigates, fast patrol boats and missile boats[16]. It has also demonstrated Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) technology. In space science, India is amongst the world leaders. All this has been achieved at a moderate expenditure of 3% of GNP per annum. Nuclear Potential. Having successfully exploded its first nuclear device on 18 May 1974; India has continued to maintain a stance of using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes alone. However, the potential of India to develop a nuclear bomb cannot be denied. Indias nuclear structure is quite diversified. Beginning with the construction of Asias (outside erstwhile USSR ) first nuclear reactor in 1956, India has acquired the following major facilities[17]:- Half a dozen nuclear research reactors, all but one built without foreign assistance or participation. The ability to design and construct from equipment manufactured indigenously one 500 MW nuclear power station every second year. The competence to fabricate all sensitive nuclear instruments, fuelling assemblies, special alloys and materials, fissile plutonium and thorium from its own processes and plants. Asias first indigenously constructed variable energy cyclotron. Numerous other nuclear activities and support facilities, isotope production, mines, medicines, seismic arrays, fissile U-223, extraction processes, fusion, uranium enrichment research and so on. Openness and Resilience. Except for the brief period of emergency, India has had an open society with an active press and an intellectual community. Indian political and economic affairs are subject to constant criticism. Critics find information on India more readily available than for China, Pakistan and several developing countries. In addition, there is a constant flow of constructive criticism from internal sources. Viewed and used correctly, this criticism provides important inputs for betterment. Indian resilience is a widely recognised phenomenon. Many hostile designs to covertly disintegrate India became ineffective owing to the conciliatory approach of the polity. Factional and religio ethnic conflicts can only be expected in a country comprising of people with widely diversified religious faith. The phenomenon of sporadic flare ups is likely to continue in the coming decades too. At the same time, India would be able to absorb such irritants and continue its march forward into the 21st century. RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NEIGHBOURS South Asian Strategic Environment. The gridlock imposed by the Cold War over South Asian relationships meant that an unprecedented number of lethal weapons were introduced into the region in the 1970s and 1980s. The Cold War also contributed directly to the introduction opf technology associated with nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.the most obvious example was the case of Pakistan. Because United States needed Pakistan as a front line state in its efforts to dislodge the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, Washington turned a blind-eye to Pakistans nuclear activities and continued to supply it with sophisticated conventional weapons throughout the 1980s. Similarly, the close relationship that developed between China and Pakistan under the structure of the Cold War assisted the transfer of ballistic missiles, ballistic missile technology and possibly also nuclear weapons technology between the two.[18] The strategic environment in South Asia has been remarkably conflict laden; characterised by wars or hostile relations between neighbours, especially between India and her neighbours. Despite this history of war, nations do engage each other in peaceful competition as well as in a large amount of outright co-operation. The changes in the Indian foreign and security policy since the end of the Cold War have been rapid and radical. They have taken place as a reaction to the perceived rather far reaching changes in the global and regional security environments. The growing problem with terrorism, in terms of domestic, Kashmiri and international terrorism, manifested itself in attacks in major Indian cities, the hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight and the attack against the Indian parliament. Moreover, the exponentially growing power of China, its strategic assistance to Pakistan and the sudden disappearance of the Soviet backing to balance Chinas growing global and regional power re sulted in a feeling of encirclement and Analysis of Indias Potential in the New World Order Analysis of Indias Potential in the New World Order INTRODUCTION Background Dramatic changes at the global level have initiated a process of reorientation of the power distribution and emergence of new powers in international politics. The changes initiated with the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR ), the unification of Europe in pursuit of an identity of its own ,a sharp decline of communism has set in a process of transition in world affairs, the sudden and consistent rise of asian countries mainly China, India ASEAN Bloc, emergence of resurgent Russia and establishment of new economic power blocs like the G20, BRIC RIC. The emergence of USA as the sole super power and its global war on terror have changed the security scenario for all and sundry. The existing obscurity has given rise to new opportunities, new speculations and new considerations regarding power distribution. A gradual shift from a geo-political world order to a geo-economical world order has come to stay. There is no doubt that any future order would have th e considerations such as comprehensive national power to incl Economy and the power it wields albeit indirectly, at the centre of any international power game. Global shifts happen rarely and are even less often peaceful. The transfer of power from west to east will dramatically change the context of dealing with international challenges. In the early 20th century the imperial order and the aspiring states of Germany and Japan failed to adjust to each other. That led to wars which devastated the better part of the world. The coming shift in power will have a greater impact globally and will require assimilation of diverse political and cultural systems. Todays rising powers seek redress of past grievances, are proudly nationalistic and want to claim their rightful place in the comity of nations. Asian rise in economic terms will translate into greater political and military power, thus increasing the potential damage from conflicts. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has noted that- In the next two decades China and India will undergo industrialisation four times the size of the United States and at five times the speedFor the first t ime in many centuries, power is moving East. Blair added that In this new world, we must clear a path to partnership, not stand off against each other competing for power. The worldcannot afford a return to the 20th century struggles for hegemony.[1] India being a part of this evolutionary and revolutionary strategic economic process needs to apprise herself of these changes and redefine: if required, her goals and objectives to emerge as a reckonable force from the present mesh of contradictions and complexities. The term reckonable force can be redefined as a regional power when one views Indias prospects vis-Ã  -vis her size, geo-strategic location, abundant natural resources, size of economy and military capability. The Indian nation is not just a nation, but a subcontinent. Being a subcontinent not only in size, but by its population which is in excess of One Billion, sets it apart in a World with a total population of a little above Five Billion means that in every Five Human being on Earth one is an Indian. It is on record that the Indian Armed Forces is the Fourth Largest in the World. India has since the past Twenty Eight years been exerting her influence in the South Asian sub-region. Thus India has functioned for over half her period of independence as a regional power in the literal sense. It is instructive that given the New World Order in which the US is about the only Super power, it is pertinent that in order to maintain the Balance of Power, that Nations like Brazil and India with a long period of History devoid of expansionist propensity, should emerge as a Super power to enhance the balance of power in the South Asian sub-region, and the World in general. The Indo-Pak conflict of 1971 leading to the emergence of Bangladesh, peace keeping operations in Sri Lanka, quick repression of an attempted coup in Maldives, deployment of Indian navy in Gulf of Aden and the enhanced engaegemnt and involvement of India in various international forums both on strategic geopolitical stage provide ample evidence that India possesses many of the attributes of a regional power. The emergence as a knowledge based economy and as a Human resource powerhouse, make India a force to reckon with today and strong vibrant economy in future. In the recent past, India enhanced role in plethora of world fora and the Indo-US Nuclear deal and subsequent ratification by Nuclear Suppliers Group IAEA. However, in some areas like all round economic development, poverty, population explosion, literacy rates and foreign policy to some extent, India is lacking at the moment. For India to emerge as a regional power, these unfavourable areas need critical attention and rea ppraisal. The Indian economy is growing at an average rate of 8 per cent a year. Most Indian and foreign observers are confident that India will sustain this tempo of growth in the near future, and will go on to become one of the worlds leading economies and a global political power in 2020. A few voices draw attention to the tremendous economic, political and social challenges facing India that the country must overcome before it can lay claim to being a world power [2]. Indians have always known that their nation has the potential to be significant power in a way in which citizens of nations with smaller populations do not. Nehru himself , for all that he emphasized the benign nature of Indian power, was clear in his mind that India, with its vast population, will always make a difference in the world Fate , he said, has marked for us big things.[3] Thus we need always be mindful of the developments that are occurring behind the veil of regional instability that is drawn across Indias rise to power. If that veil were ever to be drawn back, the world might witness the quite sudden advent of India onto the wider Indian Ocean stage as a significant pan regional player. That is not to say that India will quickly overcome the organizational and internal political difficulties alluded to above ; it is to make the point, rather, that as far as Indias Indian Ocean region is concerned, its power potential is very high when viewed in comparative terms. In this sense, it would be quite wrong to set India against the powers of the northern Pacific and to judge its power potential according to those standards.[4] Statement of the Argument A countrys role in the international system is not a random occurrence or a result of an accident; but is basically a function of its power position in the international hierarchy. To have a Subject Role in international politics is to be a part of the power structure and the inner circle that makes vital decisions about the fate and destiny of the international system and the nations within it. The Object Role nations are at the receiving end of the decisions made by the subject role nations. A third in-between category is that of an independent centre of power. These nations do not have the leverage to influence the course of the international system as a whole, but do possess enough capability to have, within a given configuration of power, a considerable degree of autonomy and the capability to resist the application of unwelcome and forced decisions. While subject nations have global influence, independent centres of power are often dominant or pre-eminent in a certain region. T hey may, therefore may also be referred to as Regional Powers . Typically a subject nation resists the emergence of a regional power; for to accommodate others to a similar role is to diminish ones own power. The tendency is to extend ones own power and exercise domination over others so as to reduce the emerging regional powers to the status of a mere object nation.[5] India gained pre-eminence in South Asia in the aftermath of the Indo-Pak war of 1971 but more recently with the steady economic growth, growing international stature and active interaction and involvement in various world forums have made it an independent power centre (regional power) in South Asia. With the recent changes in the world politics and diffusion of power, countries with regional prominence have come to possess a great capacity for asserting themselves. In this context, India has the capability and the potential to be elevated to the status of a regional power. An analysis of various factors in the light of international power structure would facilitate the prognosis of the status India is likely to achieve by 2020 AD i.e. Regional Power. Aim To assess Indias potential in the new world order so as to forecast the prospects of India emerging as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 AD. Justification for the Study Ever since gaining independence in 1947, India has moved slowly but steadily towards its role as a regional power. Historically, India has been the seat of famous ancient civilisations. It invokes memories of past greatness, though episodic; and of epochs of creativity, not only in Philosophy and Literature but also in Science and Mathematics. The fact that the last several centuries saw India under alien rule only makes aspirations in the restoration of greatness all the more deeply felt'[6]. Today, with the rapid economic growth and military stature, Indias influence in South Asia in particular and the world in general, is beginning to emerge and being felt by all and sundry A study of various factors that would aid Indias emergence, as well as various impediments that retard this process merit analysis. India is a fast steadily developing country and today stands among the top few industrial nations in the world and has a rapidly growing industrial service sector. Although pover ty, illiteracy and health deficiencies are some of the vexing problems, yet only few nations have larger pools of trained professionals, scientific, technological and executive talents than that in India. India, as a nation is about over half a century old not considering her ancient and erstwhile status as one of the oldest civilisations. In this period of her independence, she has exhibited character and pedigree. She was instrumental to the creation of the Non Aligned Movement in the cold war era immediately after independence and show her aspiration of emerging as an independent power centre in world polity. She has on the issue of Nuclear Non proliferation taken a consistent stance even though this posture has met with the ire of the developed world has not deterred her. This attitude was demonstrated by her refusal to sign the CTBT and also the NPT. It is on record that it took her more than a quarter of a century to carry out a follow up nuclear test. This could be placed at the doorstep of the fact that her good neighbours China and Pakistan have continued to arm themselves with these offensive weapons. India in her nuclear policy states that she would abide with the principle s of no-first strike, nuclear deterrence as the cornerstone of that policy. And to continue to advocate for a ban on nuclear weapons like the type achieved on Chemical and Biological warfare weapons and the ban on use of land mines. These stated positions have recently been understood and appreciated by the entire world polity and the Indo-US Nuclear deal and its subsequent ratification at Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) International Atomic Energy Asssociation (IAEA) have largely vindicated Indian stance on these issues. The engagement and involvement of India in G8, BRIC, RIC, ASEAN, IBSA in the geopolitical arena. The positions on WTO Climate change are also a case in point for growing stature of India on world stage. The Information Technology (IT) propels the world of technology in the present scenario. In this field, India has demonstrated outstanding abilities and progressed leaps and bounds in various facets, be it hardware or technology or software development. In the Silicon Valley of American, it is reported that 60,000 Indians operating there could collectively boast of assets worth more five hundred billion dollars. This is no mean achievement and the corresponding effect on India is the collateral development of the Asian Silicon Valley in Bangalore, Karnataka. In the field of IT, the Indian nation has arrived on the regional and the world stage. For this simple reason, her Engineers, Scientists, Doctors and Technologists are being sought across the globe. This is not to talk of the influence of Indian business houses and management gurus, in the entire world more so in the developing world, where they command an imposing stature in the fields of Textile technology and Pharmaceuticals. Indias stature as an IT Knowledge base powerhouse is a major factor in its rise at the world stage. India is a single democratic political entity, though slightly marred by mass/ public development issues and religious regional strifes varying from state to state. In view of the existing fluidity in the Asian region following the global paradigm, shift in the power distribution and the present status of India, an attempt to foresee Indias evolution as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 would be relevant. Scope The scope of this paper would be limited to analysing various factors governing the emergence of India as a regional power in South Asia by 2020 AD. Indias performance as an independent state would be given a brief overview along with her present status in the region. Preview To analyse the future, it is essential to critically evaluate Indias power potential as well as the impediments en-route. India has inherited a volatile, ethnic, religious and social mix that generates strong cross-currents of tension between the states of the region and added to this are the domestic under-currents of religious fundamentalism, communal tensions, demand for autonomous/ independent states and inherent problems of a multi-lingual and multi-racial society. Indias quest for the regional power status in this turbulent environment is underwritten by an increasingly open and vibrant economy and a Military Industrial complex that stretches deep into the bureaucratic structure of the nation. However, Indias attention has been primarily focused more on the problems associated with nation building and its immediate neighbourhood and, than on the Indian Ocean region, let alone the world. It is ironic that while on one hand, it is the problems of the neighbourhood that have largely driven Indias military build up, on the other hand it is these very problems that continue to limit its strategic reach. It is this combination of a drive for a great power status and intensifying regional and national problems that pose a number of questions about Indias future. This paper endeavours to understand and answer some of these questions. Source of the Data The source of the data are the various books in the college library, various magazines and articles written by various people from time to time. Internet was extensively used for collection of data, various study reports and articles. Bibliography is attached at Appx A. BRIEF HISTORY AND PRESENT STATUS The colonial powers that ruled India for centuries apparently visualised her potential and attempted to undermine it through a process of gradual disintegration. Formation of Pakistan is one vivid example of such designs. After independence, the citizens of India have displayed remarkable resilience to destructive forces. Despite impediments like poverty, corruption, ailing bureaucracy and population explosion, India has made significant progress in various fields to incl Education, Manufacturing, Knowledge based industry, IT, Space Technology, Pharmaceutical Industry. Today, India ranks among fastest growing economies of the world and IT Knowledge based industry powerhouse. In the past sixty years after independence, India has acquired great maturity and realism in the management of its strategic environment albeit with considerable pain and sacrifice. Indias posture has been based on a realistic assessment of its capabilities. It projects a defensive, progress oriented stance rather than an expansionist or a hegemonistic stance. India has continued to follow and propagate the ideology of non-alignment and is now on the threshold of coming out of its shell to play an important role at the world stage as a Global player if not as atleast as a major regional player. The case in point of the growing stature and understanding of the Indian nation has been- The nuclear agreement, which followed three weeks later, calling for the separation of Indias nuclear facilities into civilian and military, and bringing Indias civilian facilities under international safeguards in exchange for nuclear energy cooperation, demonstrated the growing strategic convergence bet ween the US India. Domestic political considerations have come in the way of the Indian government operationalising the nuclear deal. That notwithstanding, the deal was widely welcomed in India because it opened the doors for India to participate in civilian nuclear commerce with members of the NSG while allowing it to retain its nuclear weapons programme despite being outside the NPT. [7] PRESENT STATUS Contemporarily, India enjoys a leading status in South Asia. Militarily, she has displayed her potential either in a direct conflict, coercion or allaying any belligerence by its potential adversaries. Birth of Bangladesh, intervention in Sri Lanka Maldives, Indian Naval involvement in Gulf of Aden are a few indicators that India has acquired a great measure of the regional hegemony. Power status takes into account an ideological or political role and above all the economic health of a nation. Regional hegemony or dominance implies the existence of local military pre-ponderance and the availability of non-military instruments of pressure, including economic coercion. Studies of strategic power in the world politics commonly assign to India the status of a middle power of some regional significance, but little more'[8]. A nation state such as India, by virtue of its size, resources and geographical location, finds herself a power in regional terms whether or not it seeks the label and despite the fact that all its capabilities for regional dominance are not yet fully exploited. Indias current pre-eminence over its neighbours, however, is so substantial that its position has been recognised by the entire world, and implicitly so by all South Asian states as well.'[9] Recent years have witnessed a steady growth in Indias power, based upon a strong economic performance. According to the World Bank, Indias per capita income is now higher than Chinas and some reports put its rate of economic growth above Chinas in real terms. This increase in the underlying growth of the economy is what has underwritten Indias substantial growth in conventional military power. By virtue of its military growth, India has acquired , by default, a Maximalist position that would enable it to have a strategic reach throughout the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, with the prospect of a declining role for the superpowers in the region, Indias growth in military capability is likely to leave it stronger in relative as well as absolute terms. The erstwhile Soviet Union is no longer a major factor in the Indian Ocean and the peace dividend in the world politics may eventually lead to a reduced presence on the part of the United States. [10] While Indias emerging role is well acknowledged in the world, there are clear limitations both upon the current extent of Indias power and upon the rate at which that power will accrue. With India, it has been very much the question of WATCH THIS SPACE .'[11] INDIAS POWER POTENTIAL Geo-Strategic Location. India shares its borders with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan. It has close proximity to Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Therefore, in South Asia, it has to directly interact with many neighbours. Strategically, India lies astride the Indian ocean, flanking the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca. It lies across the routes from West Asia to South-East and East Asia and dominates the world trade routes. Therefore, the dominating position of India and its island territories would enable it to control the sea lines of communication between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans and consequently the world trade. Natural Resources. India has abundant natural resources. Its soil varies greatly from region to region. It is alluvial in the northern plains, sandy in the western desert, black in the Deccan Plateau and coarse in the hilly terrain. Each type is suitable for a particular group of crops. There are areas where trees grow on their own. They form the source of timber, pulp, resin, lac, gum and cane. Indias hydro-electric and coal reserves are massive. Oil exploration is limited but off shore potentials suggest a great amount of self reliance. Indias Thorium reserves are large. Its known reserves of Iron ore, which represent 10% of the worlds total and those of a wide range of other minerals suggest that India has the potential for a relatively independent economy.'[12] Human Resources. Human resources are of paramount importance in any economy. A human being comes not only with a mouth and a belly for consumption, but also with two hands to work. The adverse effects of unchecked population growth cannot be ignored; however, given the right direction and awakening, the population can be utilised constructively. A large young population helps to boost demand by providing an extensive and growing market for industrial products. It can lower wages, increase profits and output, encourage industrial development and open employment avenues. This is borne out by the fact that numerous MNCs are investing huge sums of money to tap the cheap Indian labour and the immense ready market. Economic Base. Till recently, multiple restrictions on private business co-operation and the goal of achieving economic self reliance had shackled the Indian economy by hindering unprejudiced co-operation from industrial nations. With the adoption of a liberalised economic policy, an extensive economic relation is now growing. The new economic policy lays greater emphasis on private enterprise and intensified competition for dynamic industrial progress and mordenisation. Prospects for a substantial upswing of economic growth seem to be favourable now. India has huge reserves of important raw material and a large domestic market. It also has a large group of entrepenures and managers experienced in organising and managing industrial enterprises under difficult circumstances. Given the improved setting for entrepreneurial activities, the large number of scientists and engineers, some of them highly qualified professionals, trained overseas or with practical foreign experience, could be of immense benefit to the country[13]. The expectations of economic development are based on an economic policy that is yet in its infancy. For long term stability the creation of a congenial atmosphere for foreign investment is necessary. Our focus would have to shift from development of industrial sector to the improvement of institutional framework for long term development. Greater efforts to improve social security are needed to cushion the effects of intensified industrial competition and to open up new possibilities for the impoverished classes to take a share in the economic development. Science and Technology. India began to develop its capabilities in science and technology soon after independence. However, the overall programme while impressive compared to that of other poor countries is inadequate and poorly organised in relation to the countrys potential and requirements[14]. Of the total research and development in the country, only 25% is used to promote innovation in industry and agriculture, while the major chunk contributes to development in areas like atomic energy, space programme and defence equipment. The latest thrust to uplift the economy has renewed the vigour in the sphere of science and technology also. The private sector has shown great promise to measure upto the national requirements and a healthy competition with other nations can be seen specially in areas like computer software and electronics. Numerous institutions are doing some original and promising research in various fields. Political System Indias political system was initially dominated by the small urban elite comprising leaders of the nationalist movement and an elitist civil service. At the state level, elected representatives wielded impressive influence in directing benefits to their constituencies and acting as channels of complaint and pressure within the bureaucracy. The system moved rapidly to broaden its base of support by bringing the bulk of peasantry into the system and also by including small business and trading interests. The evolution of such a system from the authoritarian colonial rule was accompanied by tension and uneven progress. India had managed to operate a complex ; constitutional, federal, parliamentary and party dominated political system with remarkable effectiveness. Indias manifold diversity and communal problems often raise the spectre of disintegration; these are common to a nation state building process that the developed countries experienced a century ago. In the Indian democratic set-up, its people have displayed a great amount of maturity in preserving their rights. Any display of authoritarianism by a democratically elected government has met with stiff opposition. A vivid example is the imposition of emergency in 1975 by Mrs Gandhi and her subsequent electoral defeat in 1977. The emergency and the general elections of 1977 were a test of democracy, equivalent in significance to a social revolution[15]. A seemingly large section of illiterate electorate is well aware of its might and is critical of the people who represent them in higher offices. India has managed to solve or at least contain major disputes on language policy and regional autonomy. At the same time religious, caste based and even communist organisations have been brought in and operate in a largely peaceful democratic institution. Indias political leaders have shown a firm resolution in making of both foreign and defence policies. The military also operates under political direction. Inherent stability is provided to the system by the presence of well established institutions like judiciary, banking and stock exchange. Future political crisis no doubt loom large, but this can only be expected considering the countrys social and economic metamorphosis. The durability and resilience of the Indian democratic system indicates that not only would it continue in the coming years but would also gain more strength and experience. Military Capability. Since their debacle in the 1962 Sino- Indian conflict, the Indian Armed Forces have come a long way. Today India possesses adequate defence capability to look after her interests. India is able to produce diverse military items such as small arms, field and anti-aircraft recoilless guns, howitzers, support electronic items, anti-tank, anti-aircraft and naval missiles, armoured vehicles, supersonic aircraft, helicopters, anti-submarine frigates, fast patrol boats and missile boats[16]. It has also demonstrated Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) technology. In space science, India is amongst the world leaders. All this has been achieved at a moderate expenditure of 3% of GNP per annum. Nuclear Potential. Having successfully exploded its first nuclear device on 18 May 1974; India has continued to maintain a stance of using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes alone. However, the potential of India to develop a nuclear bomb cannot be denied. Indias nuclear structure is quite diversified. Beginning with the construction of Asias (outside erstwhile USSR ) first nuclear reactor in 1956, India has acquired the following major facilities[17]:- Half a dozen nuclear research reactors, all but one built without foreign assistance or participation. The ability to design and construct from equipment manufactured indigenously one 500 MW nuclear power station every second year. The competence to fabricate all sensitive nuclear instruments, fuelling assemblies, special alloys and materials, fissile plutonium and thorium from its own processes and plants. Asias first indigenously constructed variable energy cyclotron. Numerous other nuclear activities and support facilities, isotope production, mines, medicines, seismic arrays, fissile U-223, extraction processes, fusion, uranium enrichment research and so on. Openness and Resilience. Except for the brief period of emergency, India has had an open society with an active press and an intellectual community. Indian political and economic affairs are subject to constant criticism. Critics find information on India more readily available than for China, Pakistan and several developing countries. In addition, there is a constant flow of constructive criticism from internal sources. Viewed and used correctly, this criticism provides important inputs for betterment. Indian resilience is a widely recognised phenomenon. Many hostile designs to covertly disintegrate India became ineffective owing to the conciliatory approach of the polity. Factional and religio ethnic conflicts can only be expected in a country comprising of people with widely diversified religious faith. The phenomenon of sporadic flare ups is likely to continue in the coming decades too. At the same time, India would be able to absorb such irritants and continue its march forward into the 21st century. RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NEIGHBOURS South Asian Strategic Environment. The gridlock imposed by the Cold War over South Asian relationships meant that an unprecedented number of lethal weapons were introduced into the region in the 1970s and 1980s. The Cold War also contributed directly to the introduction opf technology associated with nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.the most obvious example was the case of Pakistan. Because United States needed Pakistan as a front line state in its efforts to dislodge the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, Washington turned a blind-eye to Pakistans nuclear activities and continued to supply it with sophisticated conventional weapons throughout the 1980s. Similarly, the close relationship that developed between China and Pakistan under the structure of the Cold War assisted the transfer of ballistic missiles, ballistic missile technology and possibly also nuclear weapons technology between the two.[18] The strategic environment in South Asia has been remarkably conflict laden; characterised by wars or hostile relations between neighbours, especially between India and her neighbours. Despite this history of war, nations do engage each other in peaceful competition as well as in a large amount of outright co-operation. The changes in the Indian foreign and security policy since the end of the Cold War have been rapid and radical. They have taken place as a reaction to the perceived rather far reaching changes in the global and regional security environments. The growing problem with terrorism, in terms of domestic, Kashmiri and international terrorism, manifested itself in attacks in major Indian cities, the hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight and the attack against the Indian parliament. Moreover, the exponentially growing power of China, its strategic assistance to Pakistan and the sudden disappearance of the Soviet backing to balance Chinas growing global and regional power re sulted in a feeling of encirclement and